Bad Teams May Be Posing As Good Teams In A 60-Game Baseball Season

From COVID-19 outbreaks within the Miami Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals clubhouses to rescheduled games, nomadic teams, impossible occurrences and almost every team still hunting for a playoff spot, the 2020 Major League Baseball season is already off to a pretty chaotic start.

Just as weird, though, could be the things we’ll never even know about this season. Although we noted that a 60-game season wouldn’t offer much less certainty than a 162-game campaign usually does, it’s also true that a sample of 60 games can be unrepresentative of how good a team actually is. In fact, there are plenty of cases from throughout history in which 60 games were highly unrepresentative of how a team played over its other 102 games — 102 games that, this season, we’ll never actually get to see.

For instance, in 1977 the Chicago Cubs had a 60-game stretch in which they went 43-17, a record that will probably resemble what the best team in baseball produces this season. Based on this, you might think they had a strong season — after all, even if they just played .500 ball over their other 102 games, that’s a 94-win season. But no: They went 38-64 in those other games, landing their full-season record at just 81-81 despite the scorching 60-game stretch. That differential in winning percentage — more than 34 points between their best 60 games and the rest of the schedule — is the largest gap in MLB history:¹

Baseball’s all-time Jekyll-and-Hyde teams, Part I

All-time MLB teams with the largest positive difference in winning percentage between their best 60-game stretch and all other games

		Best 60 Games				Other Games
Year	Team	Games	W	L	Win%	W	L	Win%	Diff
1977	Cubs	10-69	43	17	71.7%	38	64	37.3%	+34.4
2013	Dodgers	69-128	47	13	78.3	45	57	44.1	+34.2
1997	Phillies	103-162	38	22	63.3	30	72	29.4	+33.9
2017	Dodgers	61-120	51	9	85.0	53	49	52.0	+33.0
2005	Athletics	50-109	45	15	75.0	43	59	42.2	+32.8
2011	Twins	47-106	35	25	58.3	28	74	27.5	+30.9
1988	Angels	55-114	39	21	65.0	36	66	35.3	+29.7
1973	Cardinals	32-91	41	19	68.3	40	62	39.2	+29.1
2012	Pirates	45-104	40	20	66.7	39	63	38.2	+28.4
2019	Rockies	15-74	37	23	61.7	34	68	33.3	+28.3
2010	Orioles	102-161	35	25	58.3	31	71	30.4	+27.9
2000	Astros	94-153	37	23	61.7	35	67	34.3	+27.4
2017	Indians	94-153	48	12	80.0	54	48	52.9	+27.1
2001	Athletics	103-162	48	12	80.0	54	48	52.9	+27.1
2018	Reds	36-95	35	25	58.3	32	70	31.4	+27.0
2004	Devil Rays	33-92	36	24	60.0	34	67	33.7	+26.3
1987	Padres	54-113	34	26	56.7	31	71	30.4	+26.3
2016	Giants	18-77	42	18	70.0	45	57	44.1	+25.9
1983	Brewers	64-123	42	18	70.0	45	57	44.1	+25.9
1979	Dodgers	94-153	39	21	65.0	40	62	39.2	+25.8
2011	Red Sox	38-97	43	17	71.7	47	55	46.1	+25.6
2005	Orioles	6-65	37	23	61.7	37	65	36.3	+25.4
2003	Mariners	11-70	44	16	73.3	49	53	48.0	+25.3
2005	Indians	96-155	44	16	73.3	49	53	48.0	+25.3
1993	Orioles	52-111	41	19	68.3	44	58	43.1	+25.2

Minimum of 100 games played outside of a team’s best 60-game stretch.

Sources: FanGraphs, Retrosheet

More recently, a couple of Los Angeles Dodger teams have wrapped scorching 60-game runs inside of otherwise mediocre years. In 2013, L.A. was 45-57 (on pace for a paltry 71 wins over 162 games) outside of its best 60 games … but it went 47-13 during that hot streak, allowing it to finish with 92 wins despite subpar play for the majority of the season. It happened again four years later, when the Dodgers went an unbelievable 51-9 in their best 60 games — the third-greatest 60-game stretch in the history of baseball, in fact² — but were barely better than .500 (53-49) in their other 102 games.

And just last year, the Rockies had 37 wins in a stretch of 60 early season contests, which helped them climb to six games over .500 after a dreadful 3-12 start. But from that point onward they went 31-57, eventually finishing a distant fourth in the NL West with a 71-91 record. Outside of the 37-23 run, the Rockies went 34-68 — a difference worth 28 points of winning percentage.

The 2017 Dodgers ended up nearly winning the World Series, so it’s safe to say their hot 60 games were pretty representative of how good they could actually be. But all of this also illustrates how streaky baseball can be, how much luck 2020’s teams will need in order to be in top form when the games are actually played — and how, even if a team has a good 60 games, we’ll never really know whether that would have carried over to the rest of the season.

At the opposite end of the spectrum are teams that had terrible 60-game stretches totally uncharacteristic of the rest of their season. Consider the case of the 1987 Milwaukee Brewers; they started the season on a 20-3 streak only to go 21-39 over the next 60 games before ending the season with a 50-29 run. That seesaw season still gave the Brewers 91 wins in total, but their bad 60-game stretch — with a winning percentage 34 points below what they had in their other games — ultimately cost them a playoff spot. It did, though, earn them a place in baseball history:

Baseball’s all-time Jekyll-and-Hyde teams, Part II

All-time MLB teams with the largest negative difference in winning percentage between their worst 60-game stretch and all other games

		Worst 60 Games				Other Games
Year	Team	Games	W	L	Win%	W	L	Win%	Diff
1987	Brewers	24-83	21	39	35.0%	70	32	68.6%	-33.6
1982	Twins	5-64	11	49	18.3	49	53	48.0	-29.7
1997	Phillies	42-101	14	46	23.3	54	48	52.9	-29.6
1986	Athletics	29-88	17	43	28.3	59	43	57.8	-29.5
2013	Dodgers	10-69	23	37	38.3	69	33	67.6	-29.3
1988	Indians	58-117	18	42	30.0	60	42	58.8	-28.8
2015	Braves	85-144	14	46	23.3	53	49	52.0	-28.6
1973	Cubs	79-138	18	42	30.0	59	42	58.4	-28.4
2018	Mets	20-79	18	42	30.0	59	43	57.8	-27.8
2012	Astros	73-132	10	50	16.7	45	57	44.1	-27.5
2019	Rockies	84-143	16	44	26.7	55	47	53.9	-27.3
2016	Giants	91-150	22	38	36.7	65	37	63.7	-27.1
2012	Indians	87-146	15	45	25.0	53	49	52.0	-27.0
1975	Brewers	97-156	15	45	25.0	53	49	52.0	-27.0
2004	Astros	33-92	24	36	40.0	68	34	66.7	-26.7
1962	Colt .45’s	69-128	14	46	23.3	50	50	50.0	-26.7
1986	Orioles	103-162	17	43	28.3	56	46	54.9	-26.6
1977	Cubs	103-162	20	40	33.3	61	41	59.8	-26.5
2005	Astros	5-64	23	37	38.3	66	36	64.7	-26.4
2009	Reds	47-106	19	41	31.7	59	43	57.8	-26.2
2014	Rangers	69-128	15	45	25.0	52	50	51.0	-26.0
1977	Royals	4-63	28	32	46.7	74	28	72.5	-25.9
1991	Mets	92-151	19	41	31.7	58	43	57.4	-25.8
1962	Indians	66-125	20	40	33.3	60	42	58.8	-25.5
2001	Red Sox	97-156	21	39	35.0	61	40	60.4	-25.4

Minimum of 100 games played outside of a team’s best 60-game stretch.

Sources: FanGraphs, Retrosheet

By definition, there’s some overlap with our earlier list — but this one can also be more tragic, filled with stories of teams that were better over larger samples of games but whose hopes were undone by a couple of cold months.

The 2018 New York Mets are a good recent example. When they started the year 14-5, hopes were high the team could reclaim its World Series form of just a few seasons earlier. Instead, they promptly rattled off an 18-42 stretch over the next 60 games,³ falling well out of the NL East race before a 45-38 finish brought their final record within a few games of .500. Take out the bad 60 games, replace them with just about anything else, and the Mets might have won the division.

But some of these teams also survived bad 60-game stretches to make some noise in the playoffs. Speaking of the Mets, the 2016 San Francisco Giants beat New York at Citi Field in the playoffs after weathering a terrible 22-38 sequence down the stretch of the regular season. The 2004 Houston Astros overcame a 24-36 record in their worst 60 games to finish 92-70, won a playoff series over the Atlanta Braves and took the St. Louis Cardinals to seven games in the NLCS. Then, the very next year, Houston did it again! The Astros powered through a rough 23-37 stretch early in the season, returned to the postseason and even made the World Series.

So if a team wins only 23 games this year, who knows? It might be hiding World Series talent that would have come out if only the season had been longer. Certainly, history tells us that plenty of storylines will materialize — or be lost forever — depending on which section of 60 games happens to be the 60 that get played this year. But in the end, those will be the only data points we have on each of 2020’s teams (assuming some teams even play that much). Whatever else remains will be left to baseball’s department of what-ifs, an office that’s sure to be busier than ever in this strange, strange season.

Check out our latest MLB predictions.

CORRECTION (Aug. 7, 2020, 4:10 p.m.): An earlier version of this article described a 51-9 record over 60 games by the 2017 Los Angeles Dodgers as the best 60-game stretch in MLB history. It was the third-greatest behind the 1906 Chicago Cubs and the 1912 New York Giants, who each went 52-8 in 60 games.

* This article was originally published here